Australian Business Economists Event on QE
Australian Business Economists hosted a Lunchtime Briefing on QE in Australia? What would it look like? with Ms Lyn Cobley, Chief Executive, Westpac Insitutional Bank, Dr Stephen Grenville AO, Non-resident Fellow, Lowy Institute, and myself.
Ross Gittins summarises the event in his write-up for the SMH.
The text of my remarks can be found here.
posted on 26 August 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Monetary Policy
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I have a Substack
I have a Substack. Nothing you won’t find here or elsewhere, but available for those who like the medium.
posted on 15 August 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets
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Lessons from quantitative easing in the United States: A guide for Australian policymakers
I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre on Lessons from Quantitative Easing in the United States: A Guide for Australian Policymakers. It argues that the RBA could implement a smaller but more effective program of asset purchases by learning from the US Fed’s missteps.
There is a write up by John Kehoe in the AFR. There is also an op-ed version in The Conversation.
In this piece in The Mandarin, I explain why Tim Wilson MP and others are mistaken in their criticisms of QE. Opposing QE when it is needed will lead to more of the interventions Tim otherwise opposes.
Bloomberg’s Michael Heath also quotes from my report.
posted on 18 June 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Monetary Policy
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State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment
I have an article in the latest Australian Economic Review, State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment.
The article quantifies the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on global industrial production and trade volumes. It also quantifies the effect of Australian and US economic policy uncertainty on cross-border trade and investment.
posted on 27 March 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Foreign Investment
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Unbroken: Productivity and Worker Compensation in Australia and the United States
I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, Unbroken: Productivity and Worker Compensation in Australia and the United States.
There is a fairly good write-up in today’s AFR. There is more media coverage here and here.
posted on 20 March 2019 by skirchner in Economics
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The Capital Share and Housing
I have an op-ed in the AFR noting that the rise in the capital share of income in the US, other G7 economies and Australia, is largely attributable to an increased scarcity of housing driven by regulation.
posted on 27 February 2019 by skirchner in Economics, House Prices
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Making America 1930 Again
I have an op-ed in the AFR on Trump’s latest tariff measures. Full text below the fold.
continue reading
posted on 05 March 2018 by skirchner in Economics, Free Trade & Protectionism
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Donald Trump has a chance to shape US monetary policy for years
I have an op-ed in today’s AFR on how Obama’s neglect gives Trump the chance to own the leadership of the Federal Reserve Board. Full text below the fold (may differ slightly from published version).
continue reading
posted on 14 February 2018 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Monetary Policy
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My Review of Sebastian Mallaby’s Bio of Alan Greenspan
The latest issue of CIS Policy includes my review of Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan. Here is a sample:
Far from being a tragedy, Greenspan’s tenure at the Fed was a spectacular success, as Mallaby for the most part acknowledges. This is not to say that US monetary policy could not have been improved by a more rules-based and transparent approach. Mallaby briefly mentions nominal gross domestic product targeting as an alternative to inflation targeting, but does not elaborate on its significance. Greenspan could have moved the Fed in these directions at the expense of his own authority and influence. While one can fault Greenspan’s highly discretionary approach to monetary policy on procedural and other grounds, the results were far better than could reasonably be expected and this is in no small part due to Greenspan’s judgement, which was spectacularly right more often than not. Had Greenspan gone against his own free market instincts and sought to second-guess financial markets on asset prices, as Mallaby suggests, the results would almost certainly have been disastrous and his biography would relate a different type of tragedy. The counter-factual in which someone other than Greenspan was Fed Chair (and we largely know who the alternatives might have been) is one that is worth contemplating.
Full article here.
posted on 29 March 2017 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets
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The G20 and Global Governance
The latest issue of The Cato Journal includes my article on The G20 and Global Governance, a critique of state-sponsored global governance scholarship.
posted on 26 September 2016 by skirchner in Economics
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High Frequency Trading: Fact & Fiction
The latest issue of the CIS journal Policy includes my article on High Frequency Trading: Fact and Fiction.
posted on 14 March 2016 by skirchner in Centre for Independent Studies, Economics, Financial Markets
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Too Much Finance?
I have an op-ed in the AFR looking at the long-run relationship between financial sector size and living standards that addresses the ‘too much finance’ critique. Full text below the fold.
continue reading
posted on 11 January 2016 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets
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Capital Gains Tax Reform in Canada: Lessons from Abroad
The Fraser Institute has released a new volume on international experience with capital gains taxes. I wrote the chapter on New Zealand, with some reference to Australia. Australia was deemed too similar to Canada to warrant a chapter in its own right.
posted on 07 November 2014 by skirchner in Economics
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I am leaving CIS and returning to financial markets
This is my last week at CIS. I will be returning to financial markets from whence I came back in 2008. Thanks to Greg Lindsay for giving me a platform to participate in the public policy debate over the last few years. Thanks also to those who contributed to Policy while I was editor over the last 18 months. Policy will continue under a new editor.
My new employer won’t be paying me to blog or tweet during business hours, so you will be hearing even less from me on what is already a very low frequency blog. I will still post material here from time to time and link to what I am doing when appropriate. Needless to say, nothing on this web site should be attributed to current or previous employers.
This blog has followed me around in various roles since 2003, back when economics blogs were a rarity. The economics blogosphere is now a very over-crowded space. Since 2009, Scott Sumner has been saying much of what I wanted to say, only better. It is more efficient for me to send him a link and have him blog on it than to do it myself. So go read him if you don’t already.
posted on 28 August 2014 by skirchner in Centre for Independent Studies, Economics, Financial Markets
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Wayne Swan on Monetary Offset and the GFC
Former Treasurer Wayne Swan is releasing some of his briefing notes from the GFC ahead of the launch of his upcoming memoir, The Good Fight. The first instalment from a meeting at the Prime Minister’s residence with the Prime Minister, Treasury Secretary and other senior officials on 4 August 2008 is remarkable for its acknowledgement of monetary offset. Indeed, the notes could just as easily have been written by Scott Sumner:
There are three broad considerations the Government would need to keep in mind in taking a decision to engage in discretionary [fiscal] action:
• The Reserve Bank through its control over interest rates, determines the overall level of aggregate demand in the economy, and the Bank would likely take account of any fiscal stimulus in its monetary decisions – that is, more spending would keep interest rates higher than otherwise…
The bottom line is that in the event of a shallow downturn, discretionary [fiscal] action may not achieve any noticeable outcomes in terms of growth and unemployment, but would leave rates higher, erode the [budget] surplus and put at risk the Government’s fiscal credibility.
These costs of course need to be weighed against the potential political costs of being seen to do nothing…
Needless to say, the ‘political costs’ argument won in the end, with the first discretionary fiscal stimulus announced in October 2008.
posted on 12 August 2014 by skirchner in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy
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